Prime 5 Occasions: April Canada Jobs Report & USDCAD Value Forecast – DailyFX


Speaking Factors:

– The April Canada jobs report (detailing the employment change and unemployment price) is due on Friday, Might 10 at 12:30 GMT.

– Consensus forecasts have the Canadian labor market reasserting power in April, attributable to put up a achieve of 11.6K jobs, the unemployment price to remain on maintain at 5.eight%, and common hourly wages to have elevated by 2.three% (y/y).

Retail merchants have began shopping for the Canadian Greenback, with USDCAD net-short positioning rising in current days.

Be part of me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Forward webinar, the place we talk about high occasion threat over the approaching days and techniques for buying and selling FX markets across the occasions listed under.

05/10 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Price (APR)

After a surprisingly weak print in March, the Canadian labor market is on the lookout for a modest rebound in April. Bloomberg Information consensus forecasts name for the April Canada jobs report to point out that the economic system added 11.6K jobs after dropping -7.2K in March. Even so, the six- and 12-month charges of jobs progress are 35.6K and 27.6K, respectively. The unemployment price is because of keep on maintain at 5.eight% the place it has since January 2019.

The contraction in March was solely the fourth month the Canadian economic system has misplaced jobs for the reason that begin of 2017. On condition that crude oil costs rebounded over the previous a number of months, there might have been spillover into the Canadian power sector (which accounts for roughly 11% of Canadian GDP), serving to spur job creation and thus a rebound within the upcoming April Canada jobs report.

Total, merchants have had little motive somehow to vary their expectations in regards to the Financial institution of Canada’s price trajectory for 2019. Firstly of April, in a single day index swaps have been pricing in a 21% probability of a 25-bps price minimize by the tip of September; now, these odds are barely greater at 24% (regardless of the BOC saying that price hikes have been utterly off the desk at their current coverage assembly).


USDCAD Technical Evaluation: Every day Value Chart (September 2018 to Might 2019) (Chart 1)

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USDCAD costs established a bearish exterior engulfing bar on Friday, however the hole open greater in the beginning of the week has negated the potential bearish tone which may have in any other case been established. Placing worth motion in context of the symmetrical triangle forming going again to the yearly excessive, USDCAD’s current pullback might have merely been a retest of former resistance turned assist. As such, the trail of least resistance could be the topside within the near-term.

With one other smaller triangle having fashioned over the previous two weeks of buying and selling following the breakout of the bigger symmetrical triangle, USDCAD costs look like coiling once more earlier than their subsequent transfer. Accordingly, merchants might want for a break of the April excessive at 1.3521 or the Might low at 1.3377 earlier than the following directional transfer in USDCAD costs is forecast with extra confidence.

IG Consumer Sentiment Index: USDCAD (Might 6, 2019) (Chart 2)

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USDCAD: Retail dealer knowledge exhibits 35.1% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants brief to lengthy at 1.85 to 1. The variety of merchants net-long is 18.2% decrease than yesterday and 18.7% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 29.eight% greater than yesterday and 22.5% decrease from final week.

We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-short suggests USDCAD costs might proceed to rise. Merchants are additional net-short than yesterday and final week, and the mixture of present sentiment and up to date modifications provides us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian buying and selling bias.


Whether or not you’re a new or skilled dealer, DailyFX has a number of sources accessible that can assist you: an indicator for monitoring dealer sentiment; quarterly buying and selling forecasts; analytical and academic webinars held each day; buying and selling guides that can assist you enhance buying and selling efficiency, and even one for many who are new to FX buying and selling.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Foreign money Strategist

To contact Christopher, electronic mail him at

Observe him within the DailyFX Actual Time Information feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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